Olympic Track and Obama's misleading polls

I wrote a blog a while back talking about "Likely Voters (LV)" verses "Registered Voters (RV)" and "Adults (A).   As I watch the poll numbers, Obama's margin over Romney "seems to be widening", but not when you take only the LV polls.  There his margin has shrunk to less than zero.  Also when you throw out known leftist organizations like MSNBC/NBC or Democracy Corps or CNN you see Romney is in much better position than you might think.

I actually think that these crappy polls will work into Romney's favor in the end.  An analogy I like to use comes from Track and Field (watch the Olympics and you will see what I mean).   When you watch the 200m or 400m races, the runners are "staggered" (they don't start on a straight line) because going around a circle, the outside running would end up running farther than the inside runner.  To make up for this, the outside runner starts out "ahead" of the other runners so that in the end ALL the runners run the same distance.   The outside runner still has a disadvantage however because he starts out in a position that he cannot see how far the other runners are behind him and he may think himself to be winning when we may in fact he may be losing.   The runner in the back has an advantage for just the opposite reason.  He sees himself as being behind and runs harder to "catch up".   He can also see ALL the runners and judge better where he stands in the race.

The polls that put Obama in the lead actually put Obama in a position of a false-lead like the runner staggered in front of the other runners. While it may give Obama an easier time sleeping at night one must ask, "Will the voters in November feel the urgency to come out and vote if all the polls show Obama as having  a somewhat comfortable lead?".    Likewise, "Will the voters for Romney see the urgency of getting their family and friends out to the polls?". 

My advice to all who watch the polls like I do is this:  "Ignore them, when they show Obama UP, work HARDER!"